‘If I feel like this, how does the child feel?’ Child protection workers, supervision, management and organisational responses to parental violence

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Social Work Practice, on 14 September 2015, available online at:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02650533.2015.1073145 © 2015 GAPS.This study analysed workers’ experiences of supervision following interactions with hostile and intimidating parents. This analysis examined management and organisational responses to worker stress, and assessed the adequacy of support that workers received. An online survey was designed to collect data on workers’ experiences and free text responses were qualitatively analysed for references to the supervision they received in response to working with parents. 590 participants responded to the survey. 402 were qualified social workers, and 423 worked in child protection. Participants had experienced a range of violent behaviour from parents. The overwhelming theme in responses was the lack of support and supervision workers received, often in stressful and frightening circumstances. Approximately one quarter of participants only used organisational procedures, guidelines or protocols on dealing with hostile parents. Workers reported that mismanaged parental hostility affected their practice and the quality of protection that children received. The violence experienced had a significant negative impact on their personal and professional lives. Organisational responses in the form of supervision and education were often inadequate and resulted in children receiving reduced quality of protection. Recommendations for policy and practice change are discussed, with the aim of caring for workers and the children they protectPeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Space weather impacts on the UK railway network

Some of the many manifestations of space weather’s effects on ground based infrastructure are hazards that affect the smooth and safe operation of railway networks, with the potential of signalling system failures, damage to locomotive on board transformers and disruptions caused by interference to a plethora of interdependent systems such as radio, GPS and grid power supply. This work focuses on the impacts on track circuits, signalling systems that use electrical currents to detect the presence or absence of a train in sections of a wider network, as such, they are affected by geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) arising from space weather. The impact on track circuits of various designs has been investigated during the 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm, the first storm of solar cycle 24 to reach a level of “Severe” on the NOAA geomagnetic storm scale. This has been achieved by using the Spherical Elementary Current System (SECS) method of geomagnetic field interpolation, a conductivity model of the UK, estimations of the geoelectric field and track circuit modelling techniques developed by Boteler (2021)

The Impact of Space Weather on UK Railways

Some of the many manifestations of space weather’s effects on ground-based infrastructure are hazards to railway assets, with the potential of false signalling, damage to a train’s onboard transformer and even injury of track-side workers. Railway track circuits are key signalling mechanisms that are responsible for the safe and smooth operation of a railway network. By utilising track circuit modelling, geomagnetic field interpolation and UK conductivity models, the impact of space weather on the UK railways can be investigated. Initial results from a UK-focused modelling project will be presented and next steps proposed

A Global Climatological Model of Extreme Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations

This paper presents a multi-parameter global statistical model of extreme horizontal geomagnetic field fluctuations (dBH/dt), which are a useful input to models assessing the risk of geomagnetically induced currents in ground infrastructure. Generalised Pareto (GP) distributions were fitted to 1-minute measurements of |dBH/dt| from 125 magnetometers (with an average of 28 years of data per site) and return levels (RL) predicted for return periods (RP) between 5 and 500 years. Analytical functions characterise the profiles of maximum-likelihood GP model parameters and the derived RLs as a function of corrected geomagnetic latitude, λ. A sharp peak in both the GP shape parameter and the RLs is observed at |λ|=53° in both hemispheres, indicating a sharp equatorward limit of the auroral electrojet region. RLs also increase strongly in the dayside region poleward of the polar cusp (|λ|>75°) for RPs > 100 years. We describe how the GP model may be further refined by modelling the probability of occurrences of |dBH/dt| exceeding the 99.97th percentile as a function of month, magnetic local time, and the direction of the field fluctuation, dBH , and demonstrate that these patterns of occurrence align closely to known patterns of auroral substorm onsets, ULF Pc5 wave activity, and (storm) sudden commencement impacts. Changes in the occurrence probability profiles with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation reveal further details of the nature of the ionospheric currents driving extreme |dBH/dt| fluctuations, such as the changing location of the polar cusp and seasonal variations explained by the Russell-McPherron effect

Associations of statin adherence and lipid targets with adverse outcomes in myocardial infarction survivors:a retrospective cohort study

Objectives: To examine associations between statin adherence and lipid target achievement in myocardial infarction (MI) survivors, and their associations with mortality and recurrent MIs. Design: Retrospective cohort study using linked clinical records within the National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Data Safe Haven. Setting: Routine clinical practice in the NHS GGC area between January 2009 and July 2017. Participants: Patients ≥18 years who experienced a non-fatal MI hospital admission (ICD10: I21, I22) between January 2009 and July 2014 (n=11 031), followed up from the date of MI admission until July 2017 or death, whichever occurred first. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Statin adherence was estimated using encashed prescriptions and lipid results from routine biochemistry data. Primary lipid and statin adherence targets were LDL ≤1.8 mmol/L and adherence ≥50%, and were related to all-cause death, deaths due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) (ICD10: I00–I99 as the underlying cause), and recurrent MI in unadjusted models and models adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation and year of MI. Results: Over 4.5 years follow-up, 76% achieved LDL ≤1.8 mmol/L, and 84.5% had average adherence ≥50%. Patients with adherence <50% had an increased risk of not meeting LDL ≤1.8 mmol/L, in adjusted models (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.78 to 2.31, p<0.0001). In univariable models, not meeting LDL ≤1.8 mmol/L was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.39, p<0.0001) and CVD mortality (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.51, p=0.0013). Adherence <50% was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.74, p<0.0001) and CVD mortality (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.88, p<0.0001). Adjustment for confounders did not abrogate these associations. Neither exposure was associated with recurrent MIs. Conclusions: Non-achievement of lipid and adherence targets are associated with increased risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Further work is required to optimise their use to improve outcomes in clinical practice

Modelling directionality, seasonality, and local time dependences in extreme geomagnetic field fluctuations

In this poster we describe a statistical analysis of extreme temporal changes in the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field (dB/dt) – an important indicator of geomagnetically induced currents. Extreme value theory is applied to data from 125 magnetometers in the global SuperMAG archive – with an average of 28 years of measurements per site – to determine return levels (RL) of |dB/dt| expected over periods of 100 years or more. This is achieved by fitting generalized Pareto (GP) distributions to declustered measurements of |dB/dt| above a 99.97-percentile threshold. Since large fluctuations are driven by diverse magneto-ionospheric driving processes (substorm expansions, sudden commencements, Pc5 ULF waves, etc.), the occurrence rate and high percentiles of |dB/dt| vary with geomagnetic latitude, magnetic local time (MLT), season, and with the compass direction of the fluctuation, dB. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation also exerts a strong influence on these patterns of occurrence, which we present alongside examples of fitted smoothing functions (splines and limited-order spherical harmonics and polynomials). By adapting statistical methods developed for the directional analysis of extreme ocean wave heights, we show how |dB/dt| GP distributions and RLs are generated for data sets sectored by compass direction (or equivalently by season, or MLT sector) and then combined and compared with GP distributions (and RLs) that ignore directionality or seasonal/diurnal variation

Statistics of extreme geomagnetic field fluctuations:Directionality, timescale dependence, and spatial correlations

This paper presents the key findings of various statistical analyses predicting the likelihood of extreme rates of change of the geomagnetic field, dB/dt – an important indicator of Geomagnetically Induced Currents. The studies were conducted as part of a four-year UK research programme called Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems (SWIGS). Using a global dataset of measurements from 125 magnetometers, each providing between 20 and 48 years of data, we fitted Generalised Pareto distributions to the upper tail of the probability distributions to predict the magnitude (or ‘return level’) of dB/dt expected over periods of between 5 and 500 years. These return levels were fitted to a model parameterised by geomagnetic latitude, magnetic local time, and season, and also found to depend on other factors such as the interplanetary magnetic field orientation and solar wind velocity. It was notable that for certain latitudes and local times, there is a strongly preferred compass direction for large geomagnetic fluctuations, indicative of the highly directional ionospheric or magnetospheric electric currents which induce the fluctuation – examples being the eastward Chapman-Ferraro currents at low latitudes associated with Sudden Commencements, or westward auroral electrojets in the auroral zones. A technique to improve return level estimates by combining Generalised Pareto tail distributions in discrete directional sectors produced estimates that were lower at low absolute corrected geomagnetic latitudes (λ 40°). We also found that return levels of extreme dB/dt were strongly dependent on the timescale of the fluctuation (between 1 s and 60 min) and the frequency dependence was well modelled by quadratic functions whose coefficients varied with latitude (λ). Finally, we assessed the spatial coherence of daily maxima of dB/dt, observing pairwise extremal dependences, and discovered strong asymptotic dependence between sites at low latitudes (λ 80°), but a tendency towards asymptotic independence for sites paired with those at auroral latitudes

An investigation into space weather impacts on UK power station transformers

It is well documented that space weather may impact electricity infrastructure, and several widespread blackouts have been observed in the past few decades and directly linked to the largest geomagnetic storms (e.g. the Hydro Quebec incident in 1989). However, less is known about the impact of lower-level GICs on the health of transformers in the long term. In this study, the long term impact of geomagnetic activity on 13 power station transformers in the UK was investigated. Dissolved gas measurements from 2010-2015 were used to look for evidence of a link between degradation of the transformer insulation and heightened levels of SYM-H and dB/dt as measured at Eskdalemuir magnetometer station. Firstly, case studies were examined of the most significant storms in this time period using dissolved gas analysis (DGA) methods, specifically the Low Energy Degradation Triangle (LEDT). The case studies were then augmented with a statistical survey, including Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) of multiple storm events. No evidence of a strong space weather impact can be found during this time period, likely owing to the relatively quiet nature of the Sun during this epoch and the modernity of the transformers studied

The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods

We present a statistical climatological study of extreme fluctuations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (dB/dt), generated at the Earth’s surface by extreme electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Applying techniques from Extreme Value Theory we predict the magnitude of |dB/dt| for return periods (RP) from 5 to 500 years. Results presented for both ramp changes and RMS variations over periods from 1–60 minutes show considerable variation in magnitude and rate of occurrence when considered as functions of magnetic latitude, local time, and season. The direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations is strongly isotropic at lower latitudes, but this changes with timescale. A technique for improving return level estimates by combining Generalised Pareto tail distributions from discrete directional sectors produces return levels that are higher at low geomagnetic latitudes but higher at mid to high latitudes